Emerging Markets FX Daily Report

The report highlights a resurgence in USD strength due to US exceptionalism, impacting major EM pairs. While selective longs are maintained in TRY and HUF, the overall stance is shifting toward tactical caution and sideline positioning in ZAR and PLN.

Key Takeaways

• 1.US dollar strength is trending higher against both EM and G10 currencies, driven by 'US exceptionalism' momentum.
• 2.Maintain long positions in TRY carry despite depreciation, as the CBT prioritizes real TRY appreciation and reserves.
• 3.HUF longs are being reduced following an unexpected NBH rate cut, but the analyst remains constructive and looks to add cash at levels above 360.

Table of Contents

• USDRUB Analysis
• South African Rand (ZAR) Outlook
• Turkish Lira (TRY) and CBT Policy
• EMEA Risk Sentiment (HUF, PLN, CZK)
• USDKZT and NDF Strategy

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