The report analyzes EM FX trends on May 26, 2026, noting that while central bank actions (SARB rate hike, BOI cut) provide fundamental backdrops, Middle East geopolitical headlines are the dominant drivers for currencies like ZAR, HUF, and PLN.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The SARB is expected to raise interest rates by 25bps to 7% with inflation forecasts likely revised upwards.
- 2.FX sentiment is heavily driven by Middle East conflict developments, with market optimism leading to dollar selling and EURHUF rallies.
- 3.Exposure to USDTRY shorts has been significantly reduced following a surprising political court ruling regarding the CHP leadership.
Table of Contents
- RUB
- SARB
- USDTRY
- Middle East / EURPLN
- EURHUF
- CZK
- BOI / Shekel
- Tenge
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Authors
Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh
Securities
USDRUBUSDZARUSDTRYEURPLNEURHUFUSDILSUSDKZT
Themes
Geopolitical DominanceEM Central Bank Divergence
Regions
EuropeMiddle EastAfricaRussiaSouth AfricaTurkey