ING
July 7, 2026
Tepid Czech Inflation Suggests Rate Stability
Macro Economic IndicatorsMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsOther
Czech headline inflation fell to 1.5% in June, driven by lower food prices. ING expects the Czech National Bank to hold rates steady at 3.75% in August.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Czech headline inflation surprised to the downside in June at 1.5% due to food price declines.
- 2.The CNB is expected to maintain current policy rates at 3.75% during the August meeting.
- 3.Food prices are expected to transition from a disinflationary force to pro-inflationary by Q4 2026.
Table of Contents
- Food prices likely to bottom out yet headline set to behave
- Food prices will turn pro-inflationary
- Benign headline vs elevated core inflation this year
- Rates to remain unchanged for some time
- Czech economy can sustain positive real interest rates
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Authors
David Havrlant
Themes
Agricultural Supply ConstraintsInflation DynamicsMonetary Policy
Regions
EuropeCzech Republic
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