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ING Bank N.V.

June 29, 2026

The Commodities Feed: Oil Market Shrugs Off Persian Gulf Escalation

Daily UpdateCommoditiesEnergyOther

The oil market remains stable despite renewed geopolitical friction in the Persian Gulf, while wheat prices face downward pressure from improved crop prospects. Speculative positioning in oil has hit its lowest point since December 2025.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The oil market remains complacent regarding Persian Gulf supply risks despite renewed US-Iran tensions.
  • 2.Speculators have reduced net long positions in ICE Brent to their lowest levels since mid-December 2025.
  • 3.CBOT wheat prices fell by over 4.5% due to improved global supply forecasts and favorable US weather conditions.

Table of Contents

  • Energy – Speculators continue to sell oil
  • Agriculture – Wheat falls on improving crop prospects

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Authors

Warren PattersonEwa Manthey

Securities

ICE Brent CrudeCBOT Wheat

Themes

Geopolitical risk in the Persian GulfGlobal wheat supply recoverySpeculative positioning in energy

Regions

Middle EastEuropeUnited StatesIranRussia

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ING Bank N.V.Daily UpdateCommodities

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