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ING Bank N.V.

July 3, 2026

FX Daily: High Alert On JPY Intervention

Daily UpdateFXMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsOther

This report highlights elevated risks of JPY intervention due to thin holiday liquidity and analyzes the market impact of soft US jobs data on USD and ECB policy outlooks.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Thin US holiday liquidity increases the probability of Japanese authorities intervening to support the JPY.
  • 2.US jobs data was soft but not sufficient to trigger a significant dovish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations.
  • 3.Turkey's inflation is expected to decline, supporting the Lira as a carry trade despite central bank policy adjustments.

Table of Contents

  • USD: Poor jobs report not enough to bring dollar much lower
  • EUR: Lacking a bullish narrative
  • JPY: Markets pricing high intervention risk
  • TRY: Disinflation to revive rate-cut hopes while carry remains king

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Authors

Francesco PesoleFrantisek Taborsky

Securities

USD/JPYEUR/USDDXYUSD/TRY

Themes

Carry TradeCentral Bank InterventionMarket Liquidity

Regions

GlobalUnited StatesJapanTurkey

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ING Bank N.V.Daily UpdateUSD/JPYEUR/USDDXYFXRates Govt Bonds

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