UST Regime Post FOMC

HSBC's proprietary TYCCLES model has shifted to a 'Moderate sell-off' UST regime, signaling a persistent but moderate upward drift in Treasury yields. This regime change is driven by yield trends, realized volatility, and curve flattening signals.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The TYCCLES UST regime model has transitioned to a 'Moderate sell-off' phase.
• 2.Moderate sell-off regimes are characterized by yields drifting higher, typically by 5-10bps across the curve, and tend to be 'sticky' for about two months.

Table of Contents

• TYCCLES transitions into moderate sell-off
• What’s driving the new regime?
• What this new regime means for UST?
• What this means for UST strategy?
• Disclosure appendix

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial