This report monitors the 'surprise' element in economic data across various global regions, quantifying how data releases compare to market expectations. It provides an overview of activity and inflation trends, noting particular softness in Eurozone inflation and continued activity strength in the US.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The Eurozone Inflation Surprise index moved lower, with notable surprises in Germany's and France's CPI.
- 2.The US Activity Surprise Index remains in a long-term uptrend despite mixed data releases.
- 3.Global GDP surprise indices are trending upwards, while global inflation surprise indices are trending downwards.
Table of Contents
- Surprise Indices
- How to read the Surprise Index charts
- Surprises at a glance
- Surprise trends by Economy/Region
- Surprise trends by Release
- US
- Eurozone
- Germany
- France
- Italy
- Spain
- Japan
- UK
- Canada
- Australia
- Sweden
- Norway
- Asia
- North Asia
- South Asia
- CEEMEA
- CEE3
- LatAm
- GDP
- CPI
- Industrial Production
- Hard vs Soft
- Construction Methodology
- Appendix
- Disclosure appendix
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Mark McDonaldPaul MackelVanchit Gupta
Securities
HSESUSAIHSESEZII
Themes
Economic Surprise MomentumMacro Data Divergence
Regions
GlobalEuropeAsia PacificUnited StatesGermanyFrance