This report evaluates the plausibility of US threats to cut off trade with Spain, concluding that while theoretically possible, such action is legally and geopolitically complex due to Spain's EU status. Economic impact is estimated to be limited, given that US-bound exports account for only ~1% of Spain's GDP.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US trade barriers on Spain are theoretically possible but structurally difficult due to Spain's EU membership and the complexity of US trade law.
- 2.Spanish exports to the US are relatively small, accounting for approximately 1% of Spain's GDP.
- 3.The likelihood of a significant economic shock to Spain from US policy action is considered low, though sectoral risks exist.
Table of Contents
- A threat to 'cut off all trade with Spain'
- How much potential pain in Spain?
- Disclosures & Disclaimer
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Authors
Chris Hare
Themes
Geopolitical RiskTrade Policy
Regions
EuropeSpainUnited States
