US Equity Strategy Watch 2Q26 Preview

HSBC maintains a constructive outlook for 2Q26 earnings, projecting 22% growth driven by the Energy and IT sectors. While the market faces higher hurdles for earnings surprises, the firm views the concentration in high-visibility sectors as a stabilizing factor.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Consensus expects 22% EPS growth for Q2 2026, the highest since the post-pandemic period, despite a high bar for earnings beats.
• 2.Energy and IT sectors are expected to lead earnings growth, while financials and industrials show deceleration.
• 3.The firm sees opportunities in S&P 500 sectors beyond the AI theme, such as those benefiting from tariff refunds and FIFA World Cup spending.

Table of Contents

• US Equity Strategy Watch
• Disclosures & Disclaimer
• Q2 EPS expectations revised upwards, driven by energy and IT
• EPS growth to remain resilient in Q2 2026
• Consensus EPS growth estimates (YoY %)
• Solid sales growth along with expansion in margins to support strong earnings growth
• Consensus expects S&P 500 margin growth of c137bp y-o-y in 2Q26
• Changes in consensus profit margin expectations for 2Q26
• Past 3-month relative performance vs next 12-month earnings revision ratio (13WA)
• S&P 500 – next 12 months earnings revision ratio (%) on a 3-month average basis remains in positive territory
• Screen: Stocks with upward revisions to N12M EPS estimates
• Disclosure appendix
• Important disclosures
• Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities
• Additional disclosures
• Production & distribution disclosures
• Disclaimer

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