The 14 June US-Iran memorandum of understanding provides a roadmap for de-escalation and potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, physical logistics and implementation risks suggest a gradual supply recovery, keeping the oil market in a deficit through the third quarter of 2026.
Key Takeaways
- 1.US-Iran deal signed 14 June signals potential de-escalation, but implementation risks, including the Strait of Hormuz reopening, remain.
- 2.Normalisation of shipping and field restarts is expected to be gradual, with a best-case timeline of late-July for traffic and end-September for Gulf output.
- 3.The oil market remains in a deficit; inventories are expected to continue drawing for months until flows normalize.
Table of Contents
- Oil market flash
- Scenario framework
- Key dates
- What to watch in the next few weeks
- Global oil market quarterly balance (mbd)
- Global liquids supply & demand balance (mbd)
- Global observed oil inventories (bn barrels)
- Restoration timeline
- Gulf crude oil production (mbd)
- Crude oil prices
- Middle East maritime oil flows
- Middle East oil supply and exports
- US inventory data
- Other high-frequency inventory data
- Key agency forecasts
- Disclosure appendix
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Authors
Kim FustierIldar KhazievSadnan AliEvan LiLilyanna YangPuneet Gulati
Securities
Brent Crude
Themes
Geopolitical De-escalationSupply Chain Restoration
Regions
Middle EastUnited StatesIranSaudi Arabia