LatAm Multi-Asset Outlook

This report outlines a nuanced investment outlook for Latin America in July 2026, characterized by idiosyncratic policy risks and election uncertainty in Brazil versus reform optimism in the Andean region. It highlights the pervasive impact of El Niño climate risks on inflation and growth, suggesting a strategic pivot toward Andean FX and selective rate opportunities.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Diverging policy risks across Latin America, with optimism in the Andeans but increasing election-related caution in Brazil.
• 2.El Niño climate risks have intensified, introducing inflation and growth headwinds across the region, particularly for Colombia and Peru.
• 3.Investment opportunities found in Andean FX and Colombian rates, while the outlook for Brazilian assets remains cautious due to election uncertainty.

Table of Contents

• Key LatAm forecasts
• LatAm FX gains have partly eroded, but LatAm continues to outperform EM FX
• More nuanced than before
• Summary of reform proposals in Andean economies following elections
• Summary of Brazil candidate policy proposals
• El Niño risks by country
• Brazil: Economics views
• Brazil: Multi-asset views
• Mexico: Economics views
• Mexico: Multi-asset views
• Chile: Economics views
• Chile: Multi-asset views
• Colombia: Economics views
• Colombia: Multi-asset views
• Argentina: Economics views
• Argentina: FX strategy views
• Peru: Economics & FX views

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