Macro Musings What Me Worry

Strong U.S. corporate earnings and the AI buildout have bolstered market sentiment, but a looming oil supply crisis and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose significant recessionary risks.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Blockbuster U.S. corporate earnings, with over 80% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations, have shifted investor sentiment toward profitability euphoria despite macro risks.
• 2.A severe oil supply crisis is looming due to the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with June 2026 identified as a critical tipping point.
• 3.The AI buildout theme remains a primary driver of returns, particularly in Emerging Markets where companies like TSMC and Samsung account for nearly 70% of index earnings growth.

Table of Contents

• The Quick-Hits
• Macro Musings
• Equities
• Fixed Income
• Coming up...
• End Notes

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