This report provides an economic analysis and probabilistic outlook for the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage as of July 5, 2026. It utilizes Monte Carlo simulations and Elo ratings to project advancement probabilities for remaining teams.
Key Takeaways
- 1.France remains the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup with a model-implied winning probability of 32.9%.
- 2.Morocco defeated Canada 3-0 and will face France in the quarter-finals on July 9th.
Table of Contents
- The World Cup and Economics
- Exhibit 1: Today's Games
- Exhibit 2: The Development of the Knock-Out Phase
- Exhibit 3: France Well Ahead
- Exhibit 4: Updated Probabilities of Advancement in the 2026 World Cup
- Disclosure Appendix
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Authors
Jan HatziusGiovanni PierdomenicoSven Jari Stehn
Themes
World Cup 2026 Predictive Modeling
Regions
GlobalCanadaMoroccoFrance