This report provides an update on the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stages, detailing recent results and model-implied win probabilities for participating nations.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Argentina narrowly defeated Cape Verde to reach the Round of 16 in the 2026 World Cup.
- 2.France maintains the highest model-implied probability of winning the tournament at 30.3%.
- 3.Egypt advanced to the Round of 16 after defeating Australia in a penalty shootout.
Table of Contents
- The World Cup and Economics
- Miami Heat, Cold Sweat (04 July)
- Exhibit 1: Today's Games
- Exhibit 2: The Development of the Knock-Out Phase
- Exhibit 3: France Well Ahead
- Exhibit 4: Updated Probabilities of Advancement in the 2026 World Cup
- Disclosure Appendix
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Authors
Jan HatziusGiovanni PierdomenicoSven Jari Stehn
Themes
World Cup 2026 Statistical Modeling
Regions
GlobalArgentinaCape VerdeEgypt