This report provides an updated probabilistic analysis of the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout stage as of July 3, 2026. It highlights France, Spain, and Argentina as the teams most likely to win the tournament.
Key Takeaways
- 1.France remains the leading candidate to win the 2026 World Cup with a 30.5% probability.
- 2.Spain and Argentina show significant advancement probabilities of 23.1% and 19.2% respectively for winning.
Table of Contents
- Disclosure Appendix
- Reg AC
- Disclosures
- Global product; distributing entities
- General disclosures
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Authors
Jan HatziusGiovanni PierdomenicoSven Jari Stehn
Themes
Predictive ModelingWorld Cup 2026
Regions
GlobalFranceSpainArgentina