This report provides updated FIFA World Cup 2026 predictions following the conclusion of various group stage matches. France, Spain, and Argentina lead the current model-implied probabilities for winning the tournament.
Key Takeaways
- 1.France, Spain, and Argentina are the primary front runners for the World Cup, each with a winning probability slightly above 20%.
- 2.Cape Verde set a record as the smallest country (population ~500,000) to advance from a World Cup group stage.
Table of Contents
- The World Cup and Economics
- Exhibit 1: Today's Games
- Exhibit 2: Predicted Group Stage Results
- Exhibit 3: The Predicted Group Standings
- Exhibit 4: A Narrowing Gap at the Top, With France Slightly Ahead Now
- Exhibit 5: Updated Probabilities of Advancement in the 2026 World Cup
- Disclosure Appendix
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Authors
Jan HatziusGiovanni PierdomenicoSven Jari Stehn
Themes
Quantitative Model PerformanceWorld Cup 2026 Predictions
Regions
GlobalFranceCape VerdeIran