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Goldman Sachs

June 28, 2026

China: Three Things In China

Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsOther

This report highlights a mid-year tactical adjustment in China's GDP outlook, citing a softer Q2 offset by a more optimistic Q3 fueled by expected fiscal spending. It also covers stable holiday tourism and Premier Li's recent defense of Chinese industrial innovation.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Q2 GDP forecast revised down to 3.5% from 4.0% due to weak activity; Q3 revised up to 5.0% due to expected acceleration in fiscal spending.
  • 2.Dragon Boat Festival tourism data showed steady, moderate growth consistent with recent holidays.
  • 3.Premier Li Qiang emphasized innovation-driven competitiveness at Summer Davos, framing Chinese industry as 'China opportunities 2.0'.

Table of Contents

  • Three quick highlights from China
  • Local government special bond issuance appears to be accelerating
  • Steady spending during the Dragon Boat Festival
  • Tourism revenue per head was similar to last year’s Dragon Boat Festival
  • Premier Li’s Summer Davos speech
  • Recent GS China macro research

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