The World Cup and Economics

This report provides updated model-implied probabilities for the 2026 World Cup tournament, factoring in recent match outcomes and adjusted Elo ratings.

Key Takeaways

• 1.England's probability of winning the 2026 World Cup has increased to 7% following a 4-2 win over Croatia.
• 2.Goldman Sachs uses simulation models based on Elo ratings to forecast match outcomes and tournament progression.

Table of Contents

• The World Cup and Economics
• Exhibit 1: Today's Games
• Exhibit 2: Predicted Group Stage Results
• Exhibit 3: The Predicted Group Standings
• Exhibit 4: An Uptick in England's Chances
• Disclosure Appendix

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