Australian Bulks, Base Metals and Steels

This report provides comprehensive research, price targets, and NAV valuations for Australian bulk, base metals, and steel producers as of June 2026. It highlights specific 'Buy' and 'Sell' ratings based on Goldman Sachs' commodity forecasts and fundamental analysis.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Buy ratings for BHP, CIA, ILU, and LYC.
• 2.Sell ratings for WHC, NHC, and MIN.

Table of Contents

• Coverage Summary
• Commodity & FX forecasts
• GSe base case vs at spot prices and FX
• GSe base case vs. VA Consensus
• GSe Commodity price vs. VA Cons & Forward curve
• Coverage EV/EBITDA - grouped by subsector
• Production growth vs average FCF yield
• Price/NAV vs EV/EBITDA
• NTM EBITDA sensitivities: +10% change in GSe forecast (1/2)
• NTM EBITDA sensitivities: +10% change in GSe forecast (2/2)
• NAVPS sensitivities: +10% change in GSe long run commodity prices (1/2)
• NAVPS sensitivities: +10% change in GSe long run commodity prices (2/2)
• What's priced in to our stocks?
• Rolling NAVPS and EBITDA growth
• Large cap miners – NAV and EBITDA split by commodity
• Large cap miners – Cu Eq production growth
• Large cap miners – FCF
• Large cap miners – Cu Eq production growth, EBITDA, net debt & dividend yield
• Iron ore supply
• Pilbara iron ore shipments (annualised)
• Iron ore prices
• Iron ore inventories
• Steel prices & spreads
• Ferrous scrap trade flow (annualised)
• Australia (Qld & NSW) coal exports and China & India coal imports (annualised)
• Coal prices
• Zircon imports & pricing. Rutile & RE (NdPr) pricing
• China NdFeB Exports (annualised), NdFeB export price & Rare-earth trade flows
• GS Iron Ore S/D Model
• GS Steel S/D Model
• GS Copper S/D Model
• GS Aluminium S/D Model
• GS Zinc S/D Model
• GS Met Coal S/D Model
• GS Thermal Coal S/D Model
• GS Lithium S/D Model
• Rare Earths
• Zircon Supply/Demand
• GS SUSTAIN Australian Metals & Mining Summary
• GS SUSTAIN Terminology
• Disclosure Appendix

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial