The Economic Cost of Brexit

Ten years after the Brexit referendum, Goldman Sachs estimates the UK economy is 6% smaller than it would have been otherwise. The report suggests the worst of the drag is likely over, with potential for further recovery if the government pursues a closer relationship with the EU.

Key Takeaways

• 1.UK real GDP is approximately 6% below its counterfactual path as a result of Brexit over the last decade.
• 2.Key channels of underperformance include reduced trade intensity (productivity hit) and weak business investment.
• 3.The peak Brexit growth headwind is likely behind the UK, and closer EU-UK integration could support trend growth.

Table of Contents

• Counting the Cost
• Assessing the Channels
• As Bad as It Gets?
• Appendix

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial