Philippines Forecasting an Off-Cycle Rate Hike

Goldman Sachs forecasts an off-cycle 25bp rate hike by the Philippines central bank next week, raising its total tightening forecast to 100bp.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Expectation of an off-cycle 25bp rate hike by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) next week.
• 2.Increased forecast for total tightening to 100bp, with the end-2026 policy rate seen at 5.50%.
• 3.BSP communication has turned more forceful following upside inflation surprises and peso weakness.

Table of Contents

• Bottom line
• Main points
• Disclosure Appendix
• Reg AC
• Disclosures
• Global product; distributing entities
• General disclosures

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