Oil Analyst: Weaker Demand Offsets A Longer Hormuz Disruption

Goldman Sachs maintains its $90/bbl Brent forecast for 2026Q4 as weaker global demand partially offsets the supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The 2027 price outlook was lowered to $80/bbl reflecting higher supply projections in the UAE and the Americas.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Maintained 2026Q4 Brent forecast at $90/bbl due to smaller-than-expected supply deficit offsetting the impact of a longer Hormuz disruption.
• 2.Lowered 2027 Brent forecast by $5 to $80/bbl due to higher production in the UAE and Americas combined with weaker demand.
• 3.Expect global oil surplus of 3.5mb/d in 2027 but forecast prices to remain supported by low OECD commercial stocks and security premiums.

Table of Contents

• Same 2026Q4 Price Forecast
• A Smaller Deficit During the Hormuz Disruption
• A Later Start to the Recovery in Mideast Supply
• Nudging Down 2027 Price Forecast
• Higher Supply in 2027
• Slightly Lower Demand in 2027
• Resilient 2027 Prices vs. Large Surplus
• Two-Sided But Still Net Upside Price Risks
• Appendix

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