The World Cup and Economics

This report provides updated FIFA World Cup 2026 predictions following the first round of group stage matches, highlighting performance shifts for Australia, Brazil, and Qatar.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Australia defeated Turkiye 2-0, causing a significant movement in the model's Elo ratings and group D standings.
• 2.Brazil's draw with Morocco (1-1) led to a downward adjustment in their tournament winning probability.

Table of Contents

• The World Cup and Economics
• Australia Steals the Spotlight (14 June)
• Exhibit 1: Most Likely Predicted Group Stage Results
• Exhibit 2: The Predicted Group Standings
• Exhibit 3: The Road to the Final
• Exhibit 4: Spain Still the Favourite, According to Our Model
• Exhibit 5: Updated Probabilities of Advancement in the 2026 World Cup
• Disclosure Appendix

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