Macro Reads

Goldman Sachs analyzes global macro trends, highlighting a delayed Fed cutting cycle and a strengthening Chinese Renminbi. The report emphasizes FX carry strategies and records in the US ETF market despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for Federal Reserve rate cuts to December 2026 and March 2027 due to persistent energy-driven inflation.
• 2.The firm maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese Renminbi (CNY), forecasting a move to 6.50 against the USD in 12 months based on trade surpluses and undervaluation.
• 3.Japanese yen (JPY) intervention by the MoF is viewed as having limited long-term success without a hawkish pivot by the Bank of Japan or a shift in US recession risks.

Table of Contents

• FX
• FX Positioning Database
• Rates
• Equities
• Cross-Asset Macro
• Research

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