Japan BOJ Next Rate Hike June MPM

Goldman Sachs now expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in June 2026 following a hawkish speech by Governor Ueda. They maintain a view of subsequent hikes every six months until reaching a 1.5% terminal rate in July 2027.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Goldman Sachs has pulled forward its expectation for the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike to June 2026 from July 2026.
• 2.Governor Ueda's June 3 speech was significantly more hawkish, emphasizing risk from crude oil prices and the need for market confidence in inflation control.
• 3.The terminal policy rate is projected to be 1.5% (the neutral rate), expected to be reached in July 2027.

Table of Contents

• BOTTOM LINE
• MAIN POINTS
• The Japan Economics Team
• Disclosure Appendix
• Reg AC
• Disclosures
• Global product; distributing entities
• General disclosures