From Innovation to Productivity Boom Lessons from the ICT Revolution for the AI Era

This report draws parallels between the 1980-2000 ICT revolution and the current AI era, noting that productivity gains from new technologies typically follow a delayed J-curve path. It emphasizes that while AI costs are falling faster than ICT costs, success depends heavily on complementary organizational restructuring.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The path from technological innovation to broad-based productivity gains is slow and non-uniform, as observed in the ICT revolution (1980-2000).
• 2.Productivity gains from new technologies require significant investment in intangible organizational capital, such as workforce retraining and workflow restructuring.
• 3.AI is expected to impact productivity faster than ICT due to rapidly falling costs, but adoption will still face human and institutional bottlenecks.

Table of Contents

• When Did the Impact of ICT on Productivity First Appear in the Macro Data?
• Where Did the Impact of ICT on Productivity First Become Visible?
• The Lessons of the ICT Revolution for the AI Era
• The US Economic and Financial Outlook

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