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Goldman Sachs

July 1, 2026

Hormuz Fertilizer Disruption Eases But Risks Remain

Commodities StrategyCommoditiesMaterials

While fertilizer supply chain disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz have eased, renewed instability in Q3 poses significant risks for global nitrogen-intensive crops. Concurrently, phosphate price pressures continue to threaten the long-term productivity of Brazilian soybean cultivation.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Nitrogen fertilizers represent a near-term risk if Strait of Hormuz disruptions re-emerge in Q3 during critical procurement cycles for corn, rice, sugarcane, and wheat.
  • 2.Phosphate fertilizer affordability remains a stressor for Brazilian soybean farmers, potentially leading to long-term soil under-application and yield risks.

Table of Contents

  • Hormuz Fertilizer Disruption Eases, But Risks Remain
  • Disclosure Appendix

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