GS Morning Market Update

This report provides updates on USDJPY volatility, previews June US nonfarm payrolls, and discusses Fed policy shifts post-Sintra. Additionally, it outlines H2 EM strategy favoring carry trades despite potential US front-end rate repricing.

Key Takeaways

• 1.USDJPY experienced a sharp move lower, with potential changes to MoF intervention practices raising regime-shift risks.
• 2.June nonfarm payrolls are estimated at 130k, with a positive bias from World Cup factors and historical patterns.
• 3.Chairman Warsh indicates inflation risks have subsided and AI may significantly impact future monetary policy.

Table of Contents

• USDJPY Update
• US ECONOMICS (WALKER) – June Payrolls Preview
• US ECONOMICS (HATZIUS) – Warsh Says Inflation Risks Have Come Down
• EM STRATEGY (TRIVEDI) – EM Trader: Solid H1, All to Play for in H2

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