Goldman Sachs Morning Market Update: July 2, 2026

This report provides updates on USDJPY volatility, previews June US nonfarm payrolls, and discusses Fed policy shifts post-Sintra. Additionally, it outlines H2 EM strategy favoring carry trades despite potential US front-end rate repricing.

Key Takeaways

• 1.USDJPY experienced a sharp move lower, with potential changes to MoF intervention practices raising regime-shift risks.
• 2.June nonfarm payrolls are estimated at 130k, with a positive bias from World Cup factors and historical patterns.
• 3.Chairman Warsh indicates inflation risks have subsided and AI may significantly impact future monetary policy.

Table of Contents

• USDJPY Update
• US ECONOMICS (WALKER) – June Payrolls Preview
• US ECONOMICS (HATZIUS) – Warsh Says Inflation Risks Have Come Down
• EM STRATEGY (TRIVEDI) – EM Trader: Solid H1, All to Play for in H2

Report data

EBS spike small compared to previous interventions

Reports in this series

GS Morning Market Update is shown in chronological order through this edition, published on July 2, 2026.

Part of the GS Morning Market Update series — view all 11 editions

Looking for the latest edition? GS MORNING 1) Oil Tracker, 2) USDJPY Topside, 3) Korea Update, 4) Just The Charts and 5) AUD CPI Preview (Jul 28, 2026)

1. Jun 9GS MORNING 1) De-Dollarisation Webcast Takeaways, 2) Praneet Shah on the GS Weekend Macro Call, 3) BRL Update, 4) IDR Update and 5) SPX Rates Trade Idea
2. Jun 19GS MORNING: 1) USD and Fed Credibility, 2) GBP Update, 3) US Inflation and 4) Moderated Gold Forecast
3. Jun 24GS MORNING: 1) FX Trader Call Today, 2) NBH Recap, 3) GBP Update and 4) AUD CPI Recap
4. Jun 30*GS MORNING 1) Supreme Court Ruling

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