The GS FX Morning Update highlights a hawkish pivot from the RBNZ which boosted NZD, while the desk trims USD longs ahead of month-end supply flows.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The RBNZ narrowly held rates but delivered a hawkish pivot, raising OCR projections by 50bps to 2.8% by end-2026.
- 2.USD longs have been trimmed ahead of month-end due to expected supply flows despite better-than-expected US survey data.
- 3.USDJPY continues to trend higher towards 160, mirroring previous intervention patterns, while volatility (1w ATMF) is compressing to 4v-levels.
Table of Contents
- USD: Resistance/Supply Persists Into Month-End
- NZD: Hawkish RBNZ But Uncertainty Remains High
- JPY: Spot Trending Higher, Vols Trending Lower
- Meme Of The Day
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Authors
Matt Atherton
Securities
DXYEURUSDUSDJPYAUDNZD
Themes
Monetary Policy DivergenceFX Volatility CompressionMonth-End Rebalancing
Regions
North AmericaAsia PacificUnited StatesNew ZealandJapan