This report highlights a weak demand outlook for China's upcoming Dragon Boat Festival for premium spirits, driven by downward revisions in distributor expectations and soft wholesale pricing.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Distributor expectations for the Dragon Boat Festival are weak, with retail growth forecasts for Moutai and Wuliangye revised down from 20-30% to 10-20%.
- 2.Wholesale prices for high-end spirits remain soft or flat; Feitian Moutai wholesale price is largely stable while Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 prices remain muted.
- 3.i-Moutai app activity remains robust, with MAU at 10.2mn in May, significantly above pre-launch levels.
Table of Contents
- China Spirits Tracker: Dragon Boat Festival around the corner: Weak outlook despite a low base; Muted wholesale price trend
- Weekly Momentum of China Spirits Sector
- Key news this week
- Wholesale price summary of high-end liquors
- Monthly Wholesale Prices Tracker - 40+ SKUs
- Performance & Valuation
- Valuation table
- Valuation methodology and key risks
- Disclosure Appendix
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Authors
Leaf LiuChristina LiuValerie Zhou
Securities
600519 CG000858.SZ
Themes
Spirit channel inventoryConsumer demand sentiment
Regions
Asia PacificChina