The Post Modern Cycle Navigating the Capex Boom

The report outlines a 'Post Modern' economic cycle characterized by rising interest rates, geopolitical fragmentation, and a massive capex supercycle driven by AI and national security. Investors are encouraged to look beyond traditional tech growth stocks toward 'old economy' assets that benefit from increased physical infrastructure spending.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The 'Post Modern' cycle represents a structural shift toward higher macro volatility, rising real rates, and increased state intervention.
• 2.A new 'capex supercycle' is driven by AI-related infrastructure needs and public sector investments in energy security and defense.
• 3.Higher cost of capital and shifting economic conditions increase the importance of EPS growth over valuation expansion.

Table of Contents

• The Post Modern Cycle – Navigating the Capex Boom
• The ‘Modern’ super cycle, 1982-2007
• The zero rate cycle – financial crisis to pandemic (2009-2022)
• From 2022: The 'Post Modern' cycle
• Equity market implications of the 'Post Modern' cycle
• Appendix

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