China Property Weekly Wrap

The China property sector experienced flat transaction volumes in Week 24, while central government clarification on urban renewal funding provided incremental support. Developers are currently trading at historical valuation troughs.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Central ministries provided further details on N-T urban renewal funding, specifically Rmb97bn for old/dilapidated housing and Rmb160bn for underground pipeline upgrades.
• 2.Property market transaction volumes remained broadly flat in both primary and secondary sectors week-over-week.
• 3.Property developer valuations are currently trading at downturn trough levels, with average discounts to end-2026E NAV at 27-28%.

Table of Contents

• Key highlights for the week
• Key data points
• Implications
• Primary market Week 24: GFA +1% wow and was flat yoy, sending YTD to -13% yoy
• Secondary market: Week 24/YTD volumes were +1%/+1% yoy, with price appreciation expectations stable for home-sellers but edging lower for agents
• Inventory Week 24: Inventory -0.2% wow and -4.7% from end-25 level, with inventory months at 27.8 (vs. average 28.5 in May-26)
• GSPC implies high-teens % yoy decline/-1% yoy in completions for May-26/FY26E per GSe
• Valuations: P/B valuation at downturn trough

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