Ceemea Inflation Monitor

Headline inflation in the CEEMEA region broadly declined in May, with most economies reporting figures below consensus expectations. This persistent disinflation suggests the regional economic impact of the energy crisis and the Iran war has been less severe than initially projected.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Headline inflation declined across most of CEEMEA in May, consistently surprising consensus expectations to the downside.
• 2.
• 3.Sub-Saharan Africa, specifically Kenya, deviated from the regional disinflationary trend with an upside surprise in headline inflation.

Table of Contents

• Another Month of Downside Surprises
• Core Inflation Mostly Lower or Unchanged
• Czech Republic: Headline Inflation Declines to +2.1%yoy, Below Expectations
• Hungary: Inflation Declines and Surprises Expectations Materially to the Downside
• Poland: Large Downside Surprise to Inflation in May
• Romania: Inflation Rises to +10.9%yoy in May, Driven by Transport Fuels
• Russia: Inflation Declines From +5.6%yoy to +5.3%yoy in May
• Turkiye: Monthly Inflation Slowed to 1.7%mom in May Due to Non-Core Components
• Israel: Headline Inflation Unchanged at +1.9%yoy, In Downside Surprise to Expectations
• Ukraine: Inflation Declines on Weaker Food Inflation
• South Africa: Inflation Rises in May But Surprises Consensus Significantly to the Downside
• Egypt: Inflation Dips by 0.3pp to +14.6%yoy, Broadly in Line with Expectations
• Ghana: Inflation Increases to 3.7% yoy in May, Surprising Again To The Downside
• Kenya: Headline Inflation Rises by 1.1pp in May, Surprising Again To The Upside

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