Global Macro Monthly

The global economy exhibits high-pressure expansion led by the US, despite energy and geopolitical shocks. Consequently, central banks, particularly the Fed, face a higher-for-longer rate environment due to persistent hiring and demand.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The global economy is in a high-pressure revenue-expansion regime led by the US, though regional divergence is widening.
• 2.AI investment is currently 85% capex recycling, reinforcing demand before delivering tangible productivity gains.
• 3.Monetary cycles are less benign than expected; US rate paths are higher due to resilient hiring and demand.

Table of Contents

• Growth under pressure?
• United States
• Euro Area
• China
• Global LIs
• Economic forecasts and central bank watch

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