Precious Special Report: Hawks Drive Out Bulls

Deutsche Bank revises its gold outlook to a neutral stance as hawkish Federal Reserve policy outweighs previous bullish factors. While investment demand remains weak, structural support from central bank accumulation and rising US debt levels remains in place.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Fed repricing and resilient US macro data have driven gold prices lower, leading to a downward revision in forecasts.
• 2.Investment demand (ETFs and futures) remains weak, while central bank demand is viewed as a structural, long-term support for gold.
• 3.Regional import demand from China and India is currently facing headwinds due to currency trends and policy tightening.

Table of Contents

• Precious Special Report
• Recalibrating precious forecasts
• Policy risk scenarios
• Recent tightening examples
• Short-term flow factors appear weak
• Longer-term gold drivers
• Outlining the picture for H2
• Appendix 1

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