US CPI May 2026 Preview

This report provides a preview of the May 2026 US CPI, forecasting an acceleration in headline inflation to 4.30% YoY. It highlights energy price pressures and suggests an extended pause for the Federal Reserve.

Key Takeaways

• 1.We expect US headline CPI to accelerate to 4.30% YoY in May, driven by energy spikes from the Iran war.
• 2.Recent inflation data and labour market stabilization have quashed near-term rate cut expectations, with the Fed likely to maintain an extended pause.

Table of Contents

• Summary of this month's CPI preview
• Beyond this month
• PCE and the Fed: Second round effects key for the Fed
• Services
• Core goods
• Food
• Energy
• Our CPI forecasts up to 2027
• Our CPI forecasts in detail (1/2) - food, energy, core goods
• Our CPI forecasts in detail (2/2) - services
• Contributions to YoY CPI
• Services CPI, selected components
• Core goods CPI, selected components
• Food CPI, selected components
• Energy CPI, only five components
• Latest publications
• Red Mount Analytics – Inflation Research specific dashboards
• Disclosures and certification

Document Preview

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