US CPI June 2026 Preview

This report provides a preview for the US June 2026 CPI, anticipating headline deceleration to 3.81% YoY while core inflation remains anchored around 2.88% YoY. The decline is heavily attributed to falling energy contributions.

Key Takeaways

• 1.We expect US headline CPI to decelerate to 3.81% YoY in June 2026, driven primarily by energy price declines.
• 2.Core inflation is expected to remain firm at 0.26% MoM SA for June 2026, with a YoY projection of 2.88%.
• 3.Energy prices are expected to retrace to 16.2% YoY in June 2026 following a 23.5% YoY peak in May, aided by backwardation in futures.

Table of Contents

• Forecast History
• Overview
• Services
• Core goods
• Food
• Energy
• PCE and the Fed
• Our CPI forecasts up to 2027
• Our CPI forecasts in detail (1/2) - food, energy, core goods
• Our CPI forecasts in detail (2/2) - services
• Contributions to YoY CPI
• Services CPI, selected components
• Core goods CPI, selected components
• Food CPI, selected components
• Energy CPI, only five components
• Latest publications
• Red Mount Analytics – Inflation Research specific dashboards

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