This report analyzes the G10 FX market outlook, highlighting the persistence of low FX volatility amidst Middle East tensions and the continued dominance of USD-funded carry trades.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have failed to significantly impact G10 FX volatility, which remains at multi-year lows.
- 2.The USD remains the preferred high-yielding safe-haven currency, benefiting from strong rate appeal relative to JPY, CHF, and EUR.
- 3.FX carry trades remain dominant and perform well in a low-volatility environment, with long positions in GBP, AUD, and USD funded in CHF currently favored.
Table of Contents
- G10 FX Forecasts
- FX and gold outlook
- G10 FX Portfolio
- FX Portfolio in 2025
- FX Volatility Monitor
- Week ahead: key themes & trades
- FX Focus recent publications
- FX Positioning Update
- FAST FX Fair Value Model Update
- Short-term fair value charts
- FX Fair Value Model Update
- FX Risk Index
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Authors
Valentin MarinovDavid ForresterAlexandre Dolci
Securities
EUR/USDXAU
Themes
FX Carry TradeGeopolitical Risk
Regions
GlobalMiddle EastUnited StatesJapanUnited Kingdom