Japan Economic Scenario 2024-2029

This report outlines a 2024-2029 economic recovery path for Japan, driven by proactive fiscal policy under the Takaichi administration and strategic public-private investments. Growth is expected to accelerate as Japan overcomes structural deflationary pressures and targets a high-pressure economy.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Japan is expected to overcome structural economic stagnation by 2028 through strategic public-private investment.
• 2.The Takaichi administration is shifting economic policy towards proactive public finance.
• 3.The BoJ is projected to raise interest rates gradually toward a 2% terminal policy rate by 2028.

Table of Contents

• 2024 (result): the BoJ's premature rate hike led to negative growth
• 2025 (result): growth expectations strengthened following the inauguration of the Takaichi administration
• 2026: temporary stagnation amid geopolitical risks and the policy transition period
• 2027: strategic public-private investment begins, restarting Japan’s escape from structural economic stagnation
• 2028: potential growth rises as Japan overcomes structural economic stagnation
• 2029: sustaining a high-pressure economy and achieving a fiscal surplus
• Japan economics forecast table
• Macro Research advanced tools

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