Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank
July 3, 2026
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Front-end rates fell after weaker-than-expected NFP data led investors to delay expectations for the first Fed rate hike to December. Markets remain cautious ahead of USD119bn in upcoming Treasury supply.
Key Takeaways
- 1.Front-end rates declined following a weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll report, reducing expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike.
- 2.Investors have pushed back expectations for the first Fed rate hike from October to December.
- 3.Upcoming Treasury refunding supply, totaling USD119bn and concentrated in the long end, is expected to exert pressure on long-term rates.
Table of Contents
- Weak NFP supports front-end rates
- EUR Rates Dashboard
- USD Rates Dashboard
- Interest Rates Research advanced tools
- Red Mount Analytics
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Authors
Alex LiJean-François Perrin
Securities
10y Treasury
Themes
Labor Market WeaknessMonetary Policy NormalizationRefunding Supply Risks
Regions
GlobalUnited States
