Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank
June 16, 2026
FX Focus
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Crédit Agricole maintains a bearish outlook on EUR/USD, forecasting continued pressure due to rate spreads and growth divergence despite a minor near-term upward forecast revision.
Key Takeaways
- 1.The firm remains bearish on EUR/USD despite a marginal increase in the September 2026 forecast to 1.14 from 1.12.
- 2.Key headwinds for EUR/USD include a shifting policy focus at the ECB/Fed, persistent growth differentials against the US, and equity portfolio outflows.
Table of Contents
- Still bearish EUR/USD, albeit less so than before
- 60 days to save the world
- Still bearish EUR/USD
- FX Research advanced tools
- Red Mount Analytics
- Our new interactive data website features:
- Global Markets Research contact details
- Certification
- Foreign exchange disclosure statement to clients of CACIB
- Additional recommendation obligations – available from analyst(s) upon request:
- Valuation and methodology
- MiFID II contact details
- Disclaimer
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Authors
Valentin Marinov
Securities
EURUSD
Themes
Geopolitical riskCentral bank policy divergence
Regions
EuropeMiddle EastUnited StatesIran