French 2027 Presidential Election

The report analyzes the outlook for the 2027 French presidential election 11 months out, noting Jordan Bardella's strong lead while emphasizing historical poll volatility and the uncertainty of centrist and left-wing candidates.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Jordan Bardella is the most probable candidate for the RN as Marine Le Pen's eligibility is highly uncertain due to a pending appeal trial decision.
• 2.The RN candidate (Bardella or Le Pen) has a very high probability of reaching the second round, currently leading polls by over 20 points above the third candidate.
• 3.Polls taken more than 250 days before the election have historically been inaccurate in French presidential contests, with 2022 being a notable exception.

Table of Contents

• Calendar
• Candidates
• Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France Insoumise [LFI] – far left – official candidate)
• Bruno Retailleau (Les Républicains [LR] – conservative – official candidate)
• Jordan Bardella (Rassemblement National [RN] – far right)
• Centre: Edouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal
• Left: how large a primary?
• Others
• Conclusion
• Latest polls
• Why it is too early to look at polls?
• Political outlook
• Political configurations
• Results at the recent national elections
• Trends to monitor: past rises of Mélenchon, the uncertainties about the RN's score
• Marine Le Pen
• Other candidates
• Number of candidates and risk of dispersion
• Macro Research advanced tools
• Red Mount Analytics

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