Emerging Market Weekly Pulse

This report outlines the potential for shifting market sentiment as the US and Iran move toward a ceasefire. It highlights diverging EM central bank policies and specific strategies for Brazil, South Africa, and various Asian markets.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Market focus shifting from Middle East tension to US-Iran ceasefire potential; global macro policy remains in focus.
• 2.EM central banks diverging in policy; hikes expected in Asia, while Brazil poised for rate cuts due to slowing economic momentum.
• 3.South Africa positioned to benefit from geopolitical relief, with SARB credibility supporting asset outlooks.

Table of Contents

• Overview
• Main strategies
• Main changes to our forecasts
• EMEA: South Africa well positioned to benefit
• Inflation pressure: temporary
• Strong SARB credibility
• ZAR doing part of the job
• Macro/reform narrative
• Asia: the jury is still out
• China: demand fragility despite tech resilience
• Indonesia: BI to deliver another 25bp hike
• Philippines: BSP to hike at least 25bps
• Singapore: slow grind higher in SORA
• Taiwan: CBC on hold in June
• Thailand: BoT to stay on hold as stagflation fears ease
• Latam: no room for error
• Brazil: the green light to cut
• Colombia: no room for error heading into Sunday's vote
• Trade ideas
• Interest rates: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• FX: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• CACIB EM portfolio flow indexes
• Calendar
• Charting the past three months...and the past seven days
• Economic forecasts
• Exchange rate forecasts
• Policy rate forecasts
• Emerging Markets Research advanced tools

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