Emerging Market Weekly Pulse

Investors are shifting focus from geopolitical headlines to resilient US data, while an AI-driven boom and energy price shocks are prompting hawkish pivots in EM central banks like SARB and BOK.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Market focus is rotating from geopolitics to resilient US economic data, driven by AI investment and fiscal stimulus.
• 2.South Africa's central bank (SARB) is turning hawkish; two 25bp hikes are now expected (May and July) to reach 7.25%.
• 3.The 'AI wave' is driving significant upward revisions in Asian macro forecasts, particularly for Taiwan (GDP raised to 8.2%) and Korea.

Table of Contents

• Overview
• Main strategies
• Main changes to our forecasts
• Performance of the main EM asset classes
• EMEA: SARB getting more hawkish
• Asia: riding the AI wave
• China: Trump-Xi Summit in Beijing from 13-15 May
• Indonesia: policies “all-out” to stabilise the IDR
• Korea: BOK to hike in Q3 on AI boom and inflation
• Taiwan: riding the AI wave
• Thailand: MPC minutes confirmed neutral stance
• Latam: the case for monetary policy tightening is building in Peru
• Trade ideas
• Interest rates: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• FX: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• CACIB EM portfolio flow indexes
• Calendar
• Charting the past three months...and the past seven days
• Economic forecasts
• Exchange rate forecasts
• Policy rate forecasts

Document Preview

Page 1 of 5

Subscribe for full accessStart Free Trial