Emerging Market Weekly Pulse

This report provides a weekly assessment of emerging market macro strategies, focusing on shifting global sentiment, monetary policy pivots in Hungary, and trade recommendations in South Africa and Latin America.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Global market narrative shifting from manic euphoria to a realization that tech valuations and the debasement trade went too far.
• 2.Hungary central bank adopted a dovish tone, signaling further monetary easing with three potential rate cuts between July and September.
• 3.The firm initiated a long ZAR vs USD strategy citing positive carry and reform progress in energy and transport sectors.

Table of Contents

• Overview
• Main strategies
• Main changes to our forecasts
• Performance of the main EM asset classes
• EMEA: Hungary getting more dovish, ZAR promises
• Asia: rocky road
• China: weakness into June
• Indonesia: MSCI review, revising up CPI forecasts
• Korea: inflation and exports to point to BOK rate hike
• Taiwan: CBC's hawkish hold
• Thailand: BoT kept rate unchanged as expected
• Latam: intent vs governability in Colombia
• Trade ideas
• Interest rates: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• FX: what's priced in vs our forecasts
• CACIB EM portfolio flow indexes
• Calendar
• Charting the past three months...and the past seven days
• Economic forecasts
• Exchange rate forecasts
• Policy rate forecasts
• Emerging Markets Research advanced tools

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