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Citi

July 13, 2026

Global FX Strategy

FX StrategyCommoditiesFXRates Govt BondsEnergy

Citi Research maintains a USD-positive outlook ahead of upcoming US data prints. They continue to hold bearish positions on EURUSD through put spreads.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.Market risks remain USD-positive heading into US CPI data, supporting a hold on EURUSD put spreads.
  • 2.Street core CPI expectations have lowered, making the bar for an upside surprise lower.
  • 3.G9 FX positioning against USD may see further short covering if data and Fed policy lean hawkish.

Table of Contents

  • CITI'S TAKE
  • Appendix A-1
  • RESEARCH ANALYST AFFILIATIONS / NON-US RESEARCH ANALYST DISCLOSURES
  • OTHER DISCLOSURES

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Authors

Daniel TobonBrian LevineOsamu Takashima

Securities

DXYBrent CrudeEURUSD

Themes

Fed Policy NormalizationUSD Asymmetry

Regions

GlobalUnited StatesJapanSwitzerland