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Citadel Securities

May 29, 2026

Welcome To The Politics Of AI

Macro ThematicMacro Economic IndicatorsRates Govt BondsEquitiesInformation TechnologyUtilities

Citadel Securities warns that the Fed is behind the curve on a resilient US economy where inflation is broadening and the labor market is reaccelerating. Simultaneously, the massive AI capex boom is driving energy costs higher, creating a new 'politics of AI' that risks a populist backlash.

Key Takeaways

  • 1.The Federal Reserve's current outlook is 'behind the curve' relative to strong US growth fundamentals and reaccelerating inflation.
  • 2.Inflation is broadening from energy into services and intermediate goods, with PPI showing significant upward pressure.
  • 3.The labor market appears to be reaccelerating, with private-sector hiring rising to a monthly run-rate of 170k-180k.

Table of Contents

  • CHAIR WARSH WILL NEED TO NAVIGATE AN AWKWARD FACT PATTERN AT HIS FIRST MEETING...
  • INFLATION IS A PROBLEM NOT JUST FOR THE FED, BUT FOR THE WHITE HOUSE TOO.
  • THE POLITICS OF AI

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Authors

Nohshad Shah

Securities

NVDA

Themes

AI Transformation & Capex BoomFed Policy Pivot (Hawkish)Energy-Driven Inflation PersistencePolitical Backlash to Technology

Regions

North AmericaMiddle EastUnited StatesIran