Technicals Reset but Rally Remains Thin

The S&P 500 has rallied 13% since March, driven by strong earnings and a resurgence in retail flows, though the advance is exceptionally thin with participation at 30-year lows.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The S&P 500 rally has been historically narrow, with participation falling to 30-year lows as only 22% of names outperformed the index.
• 2.Corporate demand is returning through a massive buyback window, with $685 billion in authorizations year-to-date.
• 3.Retail activity has reaccelerated into high-beta and thematic areas, with April net buying reaching the 87th percentile since 2019.

Table of Contents

• Earnings, Corporates, and the Demand Backdrop
• Sector Earnings Trends
• Corporates Re-Entering: Buybacks Set to Accelerate
• Capex Cycle Remains Firm
• Technicals Have Reset, but the Rally Remains Thin
• Retail Re-Engaged – and is Driving the Tape
• Monthly Theme Momentum
• GMI BOTTOM LINE

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