Markets Outlook

BNZ anticipates an RBNZ cash rate hike of 25bp in July to return policy toward neutral, citing sustained medium-term inflationary risks. The report also highlights continued weakness in the NZD driven by global rate environment shifts.

Key Takeaways

• 1.The RBNZ is expected to raise the cash rate by 25bp in July 2026 and maintain a tightening bias to ensure rates return to neutral.
• 2.Despite falling oil prices reducing near-term inflationary pressure, demand-driven inflation risks remain for the medium term.
• 3.The NZD has faced significant downward pressure due to a repricing of the interest rate cycle, reaching new multi-month lows against the USD.

Table of Contents

• July 2026 MPR Preview
• Global Watch
• Key Event Previews
• Fixed Interest Market
• Foreign Exchange Market
• Technicals
• Quarterly Forecasts
• Annual Forecasts
• Key Upcoming Events
• Historical Data
• Contact Details

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