Pre-War GDP Stronger Than Believed

New Zealand's Q1 2026 GDP growth exceeded expectations at 1.5% YoY, showing resilience before recent Middle East-related disruptions. While Q2 activity is expected to contract, this is seen as a transitory impact rather than a structural recession.

Key Takeaways

• 1.Q1 2026 GDP growth came in at 1.5% YoY, outperforming RBNZ expectations.
• 2.Economic momentum prior to the Middle East conflict was stronger than previously estimated.
• 3.Construction remains a significant underperformer, with residential and non-residential activity at multi-year lows.

Table of Contents

• Pre-war GDP stronger than believed
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